JLL Predicts a Buoyant Year For Ireland’s Hotel Industry
What does 2018 have in store for the Irish Hotels Market? JLL expects approximately 1,300 new hotel rooms to open in Dublin City, representing a +6.0% increase in current room supply. The first new hotel to open will be the Iveagh Garden Hotel (pictured above), which opens this month on Harcourt Street.
The summer will also see another hotel from Paddy McKillen’ s Oakmount/Press-up, with the opening of the much-anticipated Devlin Hotel in Ranelagh due end of June. Other notable hotel openings will be the city’s first Aloft and the Clayton Charlemont. Good news for hoteliers, Dublin City Centre now achieves one of the highest occupancies in Europe currently at 84%.
The level of hotel transaction activity fell in Ireland by -30% in 2017, compared to that of 2016. With Ireland’s legacy receiverships now coming to an end and fewer distressed hotels assets remaining, JLL predicts a hotel investment level of approximately €500 million for 2018. This represents 15-20% of the total long term average commercial property market volumes in Ireland. Whilst this level of transactional activity is down on previous years, it reflects a return to the long term average. In addition, long term average price per key for Irish hotels, a key value metric, is still -28%below peak levels.
Commenting on the report, Dan O’Connor Senior Vice President of Hotels at JLL, said: “Whilst these figures are fantastic for the industry, the biggest challenge facing the Irish hotel market is BREXIT. Ireland is experiencing a decline in UK visitation and UK demand may weaken further as the British consumer faces into higher inflation and economic headwinds in 2018. We will really rely on the Irish tourism industry’s ability to minimise BREXIT effects, whilst continuing to win more market share from the buoyant US and mainland European markets in order to ‘plug the gap’. This will be watched closely in 2018.”
Whilst the capital’s hospitality offering will remain buoyant, the greater Dublin Area and further afield, will also see strong growth and activity through-out 2018. JLL predicts significant ‘first mover’ advantage in hotel development in Galway City Centre, and new Galway hoteliers, who are open in time for its status as European Capital of Culture in 2020, will reap the rewards.
Dublin airport is experiencing unprecedented levels of passenger growth and its catchment is under-supplied in terms of hotel rooms. With plans for a new northern runway and an expanding office campus, there are exciting airport hotel development opportunities ahead. Already on site and due for completion is Dublin Airport Central, which will see over 41,000 sq metres of Grade A office space, in the heart of the airport. This should further boost airport hotel demand.
There also remains significant value on offer outside of Dublin City Centre and hotels can still be acquired below replacement cost, both along the M50 belt and across provincial Ireland. Savvy buys in 2018 will include large provincial hotels and resorts, dominant within their catchments.
- +6% – Increase in Dublin room in 2018 supply. With a 20% increase by 2020.
- 84 % – Dublin City now achieves one of the highest occupancies in Europe.
- -30% – 2017 saw the level of hotel transaction activity falling by -30%, but JLL still forecasts a robust €500M of hotel transactions in 2018